Palestinian power struggle
By Neal AbuNab

Since electing Hamas earlier this year, every Palestinian has become a terrorist till proven otherwise. In legal lingo it is called an “unindicted co-conspirator”. The logic is that if they talk like terrorists, act like terrorists and elect indicted terrorists as their leaders then they must be terrorists. This logic was fiercely argued by the Detroit News editor, Nolan Finley, back in February in his article entitled: “Palestinians failed democracy, not the other way around.” It is a logic that caters to the prevalent American public opinion, which was confirmed by the US Congress when last month it passed the “Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act.”

Let’s take this logic one step further because that’s where Israel is headed; every Palestinian is a ticking time-bomb waiting to explode. What do we do about it: we isolate them by building massive prison walls around their towns, starve them and hope that they would start killing each other. That’s exactly the policy Israel has followed in the past three years. When Palestinian gunmen began shooting at each other over a month ago the Israeli government could not contain its euphoria and began releasing statements that expressed “concern” for the humanitarian plight of Palestinians. The media responded positively to the signal and began covering the “plight of Palestinians” focusing on the “violent” factor that controlled their society.

In the past week, the US media has heightened the speculation about a Palestinian civil war. Palestinian militia battles that left 20 people dead so far have attracted more media attention than the suffocating Israeli blockade and the daily shelling and air raids. I think the media is marketing the idea that Palestinians can not get along with anyone even their own people. This leaves Israel with the same solution that America is pondering in Iraq; do not get caught up in a civil war. Israel is steering public opinion to equate Palestinians with Iraqis, the same way it did in March 2002 when it equated its invasion of the West Bank to America’s “Operation Anaconda” in Afghanistan to root out Bin Laden. Considering the superficial level of information that reaches the American public, this does not seem like a hard sale.

I have contended for the past 20 years and from the very first spark of the 1987 Intifadha that the Palestinian cause had become a public relations battle for the hearts and minds of Americans. Young boys throwing rocks at soldiers will not liberate Palestine but if done consistently and without escalation it will draw the attention of the world to solve the problem. It succeeded in convening the 1991 Madrid International Peace Conference. But Palestinians have lost the majority of their gains since 9/11 and the term “terrorist” appears to be sticking. This term is efficient and convenient to describe anyone who disagrees with America’s or Israel’s policies. It is applied liberally much the same way that many Muslims apply the term “Kafir” which means infidel, and both terms are designed to dehumanize anyone who doesn’t subscribe to their narrow interpretation of a certain creed. The prospect of peace diminishes as more Palestinians are branded “terrorists” and more Israelis and Americans are branded “kafir”.

Overplaying the current Palestinian power struggle in the media bolsters the claims of Israel to a unilateral disengagement. In fact, Newsweek reported this week that Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, has authorized shipments of M-16 machine guns to go to Palestinian President Abu Mazen’s security force. Israel is hedging its bet in case Abu Mazen does not succeed in turning Hamas around; more guns in Palestinian hands will result in a higher likelihood for an all-out Palestinian civil war.

Nothing more would please Israel’s heart if Palestinians actually followed in the footsteps of Iraqis and began shooting and killing each other indiscriminately. It is the most perfect scenario for Israel at this juncture. But Palestinians are one of the most homogeneous people that live in the Middle East. They have very little sectarian or religious differences. All Muslims of Palestine are Sunnis and the Christians practice traditions similar to the Muslims. In their entire history they have never been divided by differences.

Most Palestinians see the infighting between Hamas and Fatah as a struggle for power. It has no roots for spreading in Palestinian society and political differences are not strong enough to pit a neighbor from his neighbor. The umbrella of common misery always unites them. And if they forget, Israel reminds them of their misery with daily missile attacks to assassinate their leaders.

The struggle for power surfaced after Hamas won two-thirds of the Parliament and felt no compelling need to form a unity government. But the Quartet including the United States and Europe cut off all aid to the Hamas-led government and Arab countries could not deliver on their promise to rescue Hamas financially. Palestinian President Abu Mazen is labeled as a “moderate” and money will flow to him but not to the government. He has beefed up his Presidency institution with Fatah leaders that headed the previous government.

He wants to control foreign policy and the security apparatus which includes all the armed forces. Hamas wants to create a national army out of its militia. The Palestinian Interior Minister created such a force last month and deployed 2,000 Hamas policemen in the streets of Gaza. They were stationed across the street from Fatah policemen and the friction erupted in gun battles.

The government institution is fighting with the presidency institution and the parliament does not hold the decisive card. This struggle will play out for at least another month till Prime Minister Ismail Haniya hammers out the details of a power-sharing agreement with the President, Mahmoud Abbas.

There are two options on the table: a national unity government or a national referendum to be held on July 26. Both options represent a defeat for Hamas. But Hamas over-promised in its election campaign and has so far under-delivered to the Palestinian people. It campaigned to root out corruption and to continue the armed struggle against Israel.

Its campaign of suicide bombings (2001-2004) struck fear in the heart of Israel. It caused the idea of Zionism to collapse as more Jews left Israel than incoming immigrants. It turned the demographic equation around in favor of the Palestinians. But they lost much of their moral grounds as images of blown-up civilians were shown on TV screens across the globe. They also lost a lot of sympathy from the American people.

Hamas, then entered into the political arena in 2005 and decided that image was important and so it suspended its suicide attacks. It held on to the notion that it will not recognize the existence of Israel. But it did not predict that it could not afford this political posture. All financial aid was cut off four months ago and this has effectively crippled it.

When a political party campaigns for any issue it should have the power to deliver on its promises if it wins the elections. But Hamas’s campaign played on the emotions of Palestinians and had no idea how to deliver. Now, it needs to make concessions in order to survive.

Its leader in exile, Khaled Mashaal, called for a unity government last Monday. It is a more palatable face-saving means than the referendum. Polls already show that more than 70% of Palestinians will vote in favor of recognizing Israel in return for a Palestinian state to be established on the 1967 borders.

Ongoing negotiations between Hamas and Fatah involve world powers that have a stake in the conflict. Hamas goes back to Iran for approval and Fatah goes back to Washington. Fatah wants the prime minister position to be filled by a spineless Washington lackey like former Prime Minister Ahmad Qurei. Hamas won’t give up the position and wants money to flow directly to the government. The European Union signaled that it will be ready to resume monetary assistance to the Palestinians in July. But it will route the money through Abbas.

The Palestinian people have no oil or natural resources to speak of. The only thing they still have is a deed to a holy land. Israel wants them to “Quit Claim” that deed for the cheapest price. Recognizing the existence of Israel is not the same as recognizing its right to exist. Hamas has signaled that it is willing to do the former but not the latter.

Fatah argues that recognizing the existence of one’s own enemy is practical. Israel enjoys the unwavering support of the mightiest nation on earth; the USA. The Palestinians can not act irresponsibly by picking a military fight with Israel, that they have not a shred of hope in winning. Hamas’s agenda of an armed struggle is impractical and puts Palestinian society in grave danger.

But that doesn’t mean that they have to give up diplomatic resistance. They have much to learn from the Iranian diplomacy that has thus far prevailed in the nuclear game. Hamas can recognize Israel’s existence without recognizing its right to exist, which will guarantee it some breathing room to cut its teeth in diplomacy.

Hamas has made policy changes to regain some sympathy from the American people. Like I said 20 years ago, the Palestinian cause has become a public relations battle and whoever gains the sympathy of Americans has the upper hand in this conflict.